Let’s be blunt. Scheme growth has been driven hardest by children with autism and developmental delay. Families have used the NDIS because there was nowhere else to go. Many arrive at their wits’ end, with little idea about what’s contributing to their child’s overwhelm, and no clear sense of how to respond in a way that actually shifts things.
What’s being sold here — and who’s selling it
Mark Butler, the federal Health Minister, says a national alternative called Thriving Kids will start rolling out next year, with diversion from the NDIS from mid-2027. The pitch: national consistency, a two-year runway, “no gap between two stalls,” stronger provider controls, and the usual “social licence” talk. Parents hear that and brace - because “reform” has often meant fewer hours, tighter rules and long wait times with a shiny new name.
He also raised cutting the NDIS scheme growth rate from 8% to 5% per year. We're focusing on the autism side of things in this blog
Is “Thriving Kids” a bad idea?
Not automatically. A mainstream system that’s easy to reach, properly staffed and consistent across states could help. And especially if there's a strong focus on Capacity Building supports that actually work.
But there arguably should still be a funded continuation to in-home core supports for children with severe autism impacts — either inside, or outside Thriving Kids. Sometimes families desperately need hands-on help at home, from humans who know what they’re doing. The NDIS may be the best program to continue to deliver these supports.
Culture, parenting emotion and autism
Adults in Australia - including parents and teachers - are becoming more and more opposed to emotional and sensory overwhelm and to challenging experiences. Most of us are in a quiet rage at the idea of having to sit in painful feelings. We avoid, disconnect, doom scroll, binge eat, and demand entertainment and distraction. Kids absorb this and amplify it back to us. We are raising generations expected to shut down their own personal feelings. The result: autistic kids disconnect from their own emotions, while being hyper-connected and hyper-responsive to the emotional weather around them. That mix is volatile.
At Meliora, as parents ourselves, we’ve tested our own tolerance for big feelings and seen the immediate and immense difference it makes in our kids, when we choose to feel. As a society we’re becoming overly control-focused, and the results are showing up in autistic children. '1-in-6 boys' is a serious statistic, particularly if we're looking forward to a connected, functional society in the future.
What actually shifts gears
We see solid permanent gains when teams use gentle, consistent cycles of tolerable sensory stretch, then support with processing, then go again. Do it patiently. Do it often. Over time many kids build more functional capacity and more self-care. This approach doesn’t just manage the fallout — it targets the underlying beliefs that keep kids stuck: “I can’t handle overwhelm,” “I must be allowed to avoid it forever,” and “change isn’t possible for me.” We’ve seen, again and again, that change is possible.
Our bottom line
“Thriving Kids” can help if it functions properly in the real world before kids are diverted and if families at the sharper end still have a path to in-home support. The support needs to actually work on an emotional level, and sometimes that means tough talks with parents about underlying emotional issues, while addressing the impacts in the child.
Read the Minister’s interview and transcript:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-20/ndis-growth-thriving-kids-autism-mark-butler/105675484