If you’ve felt the NDIS getting a slow haircut under Labor, the Opposition just volunteered to hold the clippers too. In this ABC piece, Shadow Treasurer Ted O’Brien was asked if the Coalition would support more reforms to cut NDIS costs. His answer: “Yes, we would,” plus a swipe that Labor should “stop their spending spree.” For balance, the Prime Minister has said the government will “always look for spending to produce better value” while avoiding making “vulnerable people… feel like their support is threatened.” Different logos, same scissors.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-07-20/coalition-ndis-savings-revisited-spending-growth/105552060
Here’s the backdrop that actually drives decisions. Both major parties agreed to slow NDIS cost growth from 13.8% to 8% by 2026, with $19.3b in projected savings over four years. Latest data has growth at 10.6%—closer, not there. By 2029 the scheme is forecast to cost more than $64b a year, putting it near the top of the federal budget. Translation: the belt-tightening mood isn’t going anywhere.
What this means in real life
Put bluntly: if the NDIA sees an opening to cut your plan, it probably will. That’s why your progress reports, functional capacity assessments and clinician letters need to do real work. They should:
- speak to your NDIS-relevant disability (not every diagnosis—what matters for access and supports)
- link ongoing supports to your permanent baseline functional impairment
- spell out risks if support stops (safety, function, participation, school/work, community access)
- never make it sound like you no longer need the support. Avoid “no longer requires” or “independent with…” unless it’s clearly conditional (e.g., “independent only with continued support/equipment”). Maintenance and prevention are legitimate outcomes—say so.
What you can do, starting now
- Ask your providers for clarification on what’s changing and how evidence should read. If you have a support coordinator, they should be across scheme changes and can help you prepare.
- No coordinator? Talk with your LAC. LACs should also be across NDIS-wide changes and are a key touchpoint for participants without coordinators to understand likely impacts and how to prep for the next meeting.
- Tighten your evidence. Ask therapists to write in plain English, link goals to measurable outcomes, and include clear “risk if withdrawn” statements.
- Keep brief outcome notes yourself: what changed (safer showering, fewer meltdowns, steady work attendance), how often, and what happens when support is missed.
If you’re already feeling the budgeteers circling with scissors, feel free to reach out for a straight-talking chat about what’s changing and how to keep your plan well clear of the blades.