What the minister actually said
On 7.30, Health Minister Mark Butler floated pushing NDIS growth down to 5 per cent a year, alongside talk of “social licence” and cracking down on shonks. It sounds tidy in a studio. In the real world it lands as tighter gates for people who already feel shut out.
What a 5 per cent annual cap means in real life
When the cap drops, the gate rises. Reviews get tougher, evidence loads get heavier, deadlines get shorter. People already on the scheme feel it as smaller core budgets, fewer therapy hours, travel gutted, and reports that have to read like court submissions just to keep the basics. Plenty have already had the haircut. Lower cap, higher gate. That’s how it works.
The people still outside the door
Across Australia there are folks who clearly need support but can’t get onto the scheme. Private assessments cost money. GP and clinic waits take months. Paperwork chews through what’s left of a family’s energy. If growth drops while unmet need stays high, we’re not fixing anything—we’re shrinking a lifeline.
Why the NDIS looks unpopular in public
Because the mood has been managed. For years, government and Agency messaging has hammered “rorts” and “fraud.” That protected budgets and reputations, and it trained the public to view participants and providers as the problem. The same sour mood is then cited as “social licence” to tighten again. Create the story, point to the story, cut. It reeks of ableism: support framed as a reward for approval, not a response to need.
Is 8 per cent growth the honest path—for now?
It might be. People who plainly need support still can’t access it. Many in the scheme are already underfunded. Holding growth closer to 8 per cent for a few years while governments rebuild mainstream services could be the least-harm option. Not a blank cheque—just an admission that unmet need is real and the “other doors” aren’t built yet.
Follow the money, without the fog
The total federal budget is about $785 billion. The NDIS is roughly $52 billion of that. Payments to the states are about $100 billion. The Age Pension costs around $65 billion. Aged care servicesare about $41 billion. In that context the NDIS is big, but it’s one big item among several. Budgets are choices. If the plan is to hold the NDIS to 5 per cent annual growth while people who need it still can’t get on, be straight about what gives elsewhere—or be honest that the choice is to let need go unmet.
Could we raise more revenue instead of squeezing participants?
Yes. Australia chooses how much tax it raises and who pays it. If the supports are genuinely required and cutting them obviously hurts people, the adult conversation is about revenue, not about making disabled people jump higher for less.
Bottom line
Disabled people exist. They need support. Pushing to 5 per cent while unmet need stays high won’t “fix” the NDIS; it will make participants fight harder for less and leave too many outside the door. If the Labor government wants credibility, it could choose to rebuild mainstream services, consider holding growth nearer 8 per cent while that happens, and front up about revenue—instead of hiding behind a negative narrative it helped create.
Read or watch the interview:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-08-20/ndis-minister-mark-butler-announces-$2-billion/105678914